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最新电子游戏网址:Tianfeng Securities Zhang Lufang: the layout of the "consumer upgrade" the main line of investment

时间:2018/1/27 14:59:57  作者:  来源:  浏览:0  评论:0
内容摘要: Since the holiday, the plate on thefood and beverage , household appliances and other large consumer segment represented by strong continua...

Since the holiday, the plate on the food and beverage , household appliances and other large consumer segment represented by strong continuation. Among them, Guizhou Maotai Wuliangye , , Midea Group and other leading stocks all have to refresh and rewrite the record. As the most closely linked with the life of the people plate, these plates will undoubtedly strengthen the strength of ordinary investors even more attention. From the investment point of view, strong driving force behind the logic behind what? Ordinary investors how to participate in this area of ??investment? With these questions, the China Securities Journal reporter invited Tianfeng Securities senior commercial and social services analyst Zhang Lufang analysis.

China Securities Journal: Since the holiday, the big consumer sector performed well, what are the driving factors behind this? Is it related to rising inflation expectations?

Zhang Lufang: Since the holiday, including appliances, food and beverage, catering, retail and other sectors have performed well, the driving force behind the main lies in three aspects. First of all, the inflation center is expected to resume its upward trend in the "2 Era". It is expected that the peak value of this year will be CPI this year and the effective consumption period before the Spring Festival this year will be 19 days more than the same period of last year. The market is relatively optimistic about the consumer data Second, Home Appliance Industry Data Successively Validated 2017 Full-Year Growth and Good Forecast for Replenishment before Spring Festival. Among them, the industry online data show that domestic air-conditioning in 2017 88.57 million units, an increase of 46.8%, the annual export 52.95 million units, an increase of 11%, the industry to a new level. On the other hand, in the black power sector, the average price in the television industry also kept a month-on-month upward trend. Alleviation data showed that the average price of full-channel color TV in December 2017 was 3,529 yuan, up 6.1% over the same period of last year. And the super-expected superposition of three or four planted shed baked, stable Real Estate Expected sales and investment, real estate growth cycle after the steady growth of consumer expectations; Third, the stock market continued the style of funds, and new fund to pick up, the market expected Jiancang will continue to configure the underestimated value, strong circulation plate, consumer plate part of the leading companies benefit. In addition, Tencent joint Yonghui investment Carrefour, blessing new retail layout, etc., also caused the market's major concern for the retail sector.

China Securities Journal: Recently there is news that China's this year, the total retail sales of social consumer goods is expected to surpass the United States, what kind of information is transmitted behind? Which sections are worth focusing on?

Zhang Lufang: According to the statistics from the Bureau of Statistics, in 2017, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China reached 36.63 trillion yuan, up by 10.2% over the same period of last year. The total social share of zero in 2018 is expected to surpass that of the United States, a milestone in China's economic development so far. Consumption will also play an increasingly important role in endogenous economic growth in the future. In recent years, with the increase of per capita disposable income, generational switching, the return of population from first-tier cities and the wealth effect of real estate, the growth of the current zero has not only increased in quantity but also changed qualitatively, that is, The concept of "consumer upgrade."

Up to now, this round of consumer upgrades shows two distinct characteristics. On the one hand, high-end consumer sentiment and luxury consumer spending return all over the world, while annual consumption of cosmetics and gold jewelery increased by 13.5% and 5.6% respectively. On the one hand, consumers are concerned about the cost of return merchandise, online through the internet giants have the layout ODM brand cost-effective platform, Netease carefully selected, millet products, Taobao heart election, Beijing Jingdong made, etc., were hit below the line Quality products gradually gain consumer acceptance. So that this round of consumer escalation both in the foreground category upgrade, brand upgrades and channel upgrades, but also in the background of the supply chain upgrade and logistics upgrades. In 2017, "New Retail", one of the hottest topics led by Ali and Tencent, is to revolve around the promotion of Taiwan before and after the upgrade of consumer spending. In the future, new retail stores will continue to extend and expand upstream and downstream to enhance the operational efficiency of the consumer industry. Therefore, the upgrading of consumption is still the most important factor for leading consumption growth in the longer term in the future, focusing on the investment opportunities in upgrading the entire line of consumption (including category, brand, channel, supply chain, logistics, etc.).

China Securities Journal: Spring Festival approaching, the current layout is still a big consumer spending good time machine? What are the layout direction?

Zhang Lufang: Consumption continues to heat up during the Spring Festival, with consumer confidence index stronger CPI uplink is expected to include key players in the consumer goods industry such as catering, clothing, food and beverages, home appliances and retailers. This is likely to be a sound business performance The timing of the layout. From 17Q4 fund positions data show that the market significantly preferred food and beverage, appliance sector. In the new year, funds from domestic institutions and funds from the north will still prefer companies with better liquidity and growth performance matching. As a result, the consumption sector will still attract market attention. The specific trend may be somewhat differentiated. It is recommended that the market beware of consumer upgrades The main line of the breakdown of the valuation of key segments of the company.


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